>
Look at the bottom of this web page for very important links
We're talking about College Basketball
_______
Scoring
#1
Duke 92.7 points per game
#351
Coppin State 56.4 ppg
_______
Field
Goal Percentage
#1
Saint Mary's 52.4 %
#351
Coppin State 33.9 %
_______
Free
Throw
#1
William & Mary 81.9 %
#351
Florida International 57.3 %
_______
College
Game 40 minutes total
NBA
48 minutes total
_______
There
is a huge range in scoring in college basketball:
High
92.7 ppg
Low
56.4 ppg
Thus,
the range of totals is approximately 120 to 180.
_______
There
are a large number of teams
351
_______
Many
teams are Not good at scoring.
Many
players are Not good at scoring.
Many
teams and players are inconsistent.
Scoring
is volatile.
_______
Scoring
in Not guaranteed.
In
fact, most teams miss > 50% of their shots.
Not
scoring is the natural state.
There
is a statistical gravity drawing the score down.
_______
There
is a certain amount of random luck to scoring.
_______
The
higher the total
the
less likely the teams will go over.
Time
is a factor.
You
just run out of time
and
fail to reach the total
if
the total is very high.
_______
Teams
tend to score less on the road.
For
example, Duke scores 97.7 ppg at home.
On
the road, Duke scores 87.7 ppg.
10
points less on the road.
_______
College
basketball teams play Defense.
For
example, Virginia has the #1 Defense
Virginia
only allows 53 ppg.
In
contrast, NBA teams do Not play defense.
_______
Some
college teams play at a slow pace strategically.
_______
Injuries
also impact scoring.
You
gotta check injuries.
Injuries
impact both offense and defense.
_______
Vegas
uses season stats to set lines.
Seasonal
stats sometimes does Not reflect the current real time power ratings.
_______
Some
teams go Under a lot
For
example,
UCF
Central Florida has gone Under 12-1
UNDER
92.3 % this season
_______
Considering
the above stated facts,
I
believe that a strategy of
UNDERS
in college basketball
is
potentially profitable
_______
Look
for games totals of 150 and higher
Look
at recent scoring, defense,
quality
of opponent,
injuries,
home, away, etc.
Look
for games that will likely go Under
_______
While
Unders is a good for College Basketball,
NBA
basketball may Not work, because NBA plays No defense.
_______
*College
*Basketball *Unders
_______
Today
is 01-17-2018
ATS
Under
PPG
Defense
Vegas
Duke
Virginia
Injuries
Daily
Predictions BPI
_______
Data Mining
There are 351 college basketball teams
Offense points per game ppg
Duke is number one
Duke scores 92.7 points per game
#351 Coppin State 56.4
Most college basketball teams are
in the range of 60 and 90 points per game
60 / 90 is a good rule of thumb
that is easy to remember
for points per game ( offense )
Defense points allowed per game
1 Virginia 52.9
351 Citadel 98.6
Most college basketball teams are
in the range of 60 and 90 points allowed per game
60 / 90 is a good rule of thumb that is easy to remember
for points allowed per game ( defense )
TOTALS = Offense + Defense
Lowest Total
UCF central florida 122
combination of low ppg and good defense
may have slow tempo too
Highest Total
Citadel 181
combination of high ppg and bad defense
may have fast tempo too
Tempo = Possessions per game
Looking at average seasonal game Totals
120 - 180
is an easy range to remember
250 teams have totals of 150 or lower
Remember there are 351 teams
So 70 percent of teams average 150 or lower
Therefore, 150 is a good strike point
*UNDER 150
^These stats are from 01-16-2018
_______
Tempo = Possessions per game
High Tempo = High possessions per game
possessions are quicker
Pace is faster
When evaluating past performance
both offense PPG and defense
you have to make adjustments
Adjustments for Tempo
Adjustments for Opponent
Quality of opponent
Strength of schedule
Look at both Opponent's Offense and Defense
Sports Forecasting
When looking ahead to the next game,
you need to project both teams'
offense and defense PPG production
adjusting for Tempo
and quality of opponent
Also, consider, home, road, motivation,
and injuries
For Over/Under
Tempo is an important factor
For covering point spread
Tempo is an important factor
For deciding the winner of the game,
tempo is Less important
For deciding the winner of the game,
the projected
Points per possession = Efficiency
is the most important variable
Efficiency is the most important factor
in winning the game
So, to win,
teams should Not pursue PPG,
teams should seek Efficiency.
Treat each possession as a precious opportunity
Efficiency = Points per possession
is the Key to winning
The Question determines the importance of variables
_______
EFFICIENCY
Efficiency Differential = AdjO - AdjD
AdjO
Adjusted offensive efficiency
An estimate of the offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions) a team would have against the average D-I defense.
AdjD
Adjusted defensive efficiency
An estimate of the defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions) a team would have against the average D-I offense.
https://kenpom.com/blog/ratings-glossary/
Efficiency Differential = AdjO - AdjD
I believe this is strongly correlated with winning
Compare the two teams
Remember, Winning is the question
Not point spread
Not over/under
_______
Best Efficiency Differential = AdjO - AdjD
Purdue 31
Villanova 31
Virginia 29
Duke 27
Texas Tech 27
Michigan St. 26
Cincinnati 26
Gonzaga 26
North Carolina 24
Kansas 24
_______
AdjT
Adjusted Tempo
An estimate of the tempo (possessions per 40 minutes) a team would have against the team that wants to play at an average D-I tempo.
The range is 60 to 80 possessions per 40 minutes
