Wednesday, January 17, 2018

*College *Basketball *Unders









> Look at the bottom of this web page for very important links

We're talking about College Basketball

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Scoring

#1 Duke 92.7 points per game

#351 Coppin State 56.4 ppg

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Field Goal Percentage

#1 Saint Mary's 52.4 %

#351 Coppin State 33.9 %


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Free Throw

#1 William & Mary 81.9 %

#351 Florida International 57.3 %

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College Game 40 minutes total

NBA 48 minutes total

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There is a huge range in scoring in college basketball:
High 92.7 ppg
Low 56.4 ppg

Thus, the range of totals is approximately 120 to 180.

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There are a large number of teams
351

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Many teams are Not good at scoring.

Many players are Not good at scoring.

Many teams and players are inconsistent.

Scoring is volatile.

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Scoring in Not guaranteed.

In fact, most teams miss > 50% of their shots.

Not scoring is the natural state.
There is a statistical gravity drawing the score down.

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There is a certain amount of random luck to scoring.

_______

The higher the total
the less likely the teams will go over.

Time is a factor.
You just run out of time
and fail to reach the total
if the total is very high.


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Teams tend to score less on the road.

For example, Duke scores 97.7 ppg at home.
On the road, Duke scores 87.7 ppg.
10 points less on the road.


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College basketball teams play Defense.

For example, Virginia has the #1 Defense
Virginia only allows 53 ppg.

In contrast, NBA teams do Not play defense.

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Some college teams play at a slow pace strategically.

_______

Injuries also impact scoring.
You gotta check injuries.

Injuries impact both offense and defense.

_______

Vegas uses season stats to set lines.
Seasonal stats sometimes does Not reflect the current real time power ratings.


_______

Some teams go Under a lot

For example,
UCF Central Florida has gone Under 12-1
UNDER 92.3 % this season

_______

Considering the above stated facts,
I believe that a strategy of
UNDERS in college basketball
is potentially profitable


_______

Look for games totals of 150 and higher

Look at recent scoring, defense,
quality of opponent,
injuries, home, away, etc.

Look for games that will likely go Under

_______

While Unders is a good for College Basketball,
NBA basketball may Not work, because NBA plays No defense.

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*College *Basketball *Unders

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Today is 01-17-2018




ATS


Under


PPG


Defense


Vegas


Duke


Virginia


Injuries



Daily Predictions BPI


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Data Mining

There are 351 college basketball teams
Offense   points per game  ppg

 Duke is number one
Duke scores 92.7 points per game

#351  Coppin State  56.4


Most college basketball teams are 
in the range of 60 and 90 points per game
60 / 90  is a good rule of thumb 
that is easy to remember
for points per game ( offense )

Defense   points allowed per game

 1   Virginia   52.9

351  Citadel  98.6

 Most college basketball teams are 
in the range of 60 and 90 points allowed per game
60 / 90  is a good rule of thumb that is easy to remember
for points allowed per game ( defense )

TOTALS = Offense + Defense

 Lowest Total
UCF central florida  122
combination of low ppg and good defense
may have slow tempo too

 Highest Total
Citadel  181
combination of high ppg and bad defense
may have fast tempo too

 Tempo = Possessions per game

 Looking at average seasonal game Totals
120 - 180
is an easy range to remember

 250 teams have totals of 150 or lower

 Remember there are 351 teams 
So 70 percent of teams average 150 or lower

 Therefore, 150 is a good strike point
*UNDER 150

^These stats are from 01-16-2018

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Tempo = Possessions per game

 High Tempo = High possessions per game
possessions are quicker
Pace is faster

 When evaluating past performance 
both offense PPG and defense
you have to make adjustments

 Adjustments for Tempo 

 Adjustments for Opponent
Quality of opponent 
Strength of schedule
Look at both Opponent's Offense and Defense
Sports Forecasting 

 When looking ahead to the next game,
you need to project both teams'
offense and defense PPG production
adjusting for Tempo
and quality of opponent

 Also, consider, home, road, motivation,
and injuries

 For Over/Under
Tempo is an important factor

 For covering point spread
Tempo is an important factor

 For deciding the winner of the game,
tempo is Less important 

 For deciding the winner of the game,
the projected
Points per possession = Efficiency
is the most important variable

 Efficiency is the most important factor
in winning the game

 So, to win,
teams should Not pursue PPG,
teams should seek Efficiency.

 Treat each possession as a precious opportunity

 Efficiency = Points per possession 

is the Key to winning


 The Question determines the importance of variables
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EFFICIENCY 
Efficiency Differential = AdjO - AdjD
AdjO
Adjusted offensive efficiency
An estimate of the offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions) a team would have against the average D-I defense.
AdjD
Adjusted defensive efficiency 
An estimate of the defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions) a team would have against the average D-I offense.
https://kenpom.com/blog/ratings-glossary/
Efficiency Differential = AdjO - AdjD

 I believe this is strongly correlated with winning

 Compare the two teams

 Remember, Winning is the question

 Not point spread

Not over/under


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Best   Efficiency Differential = AdjO - AdjD

Purdue 31
Villanova 31
Virginia 29
Duke 27
Texas Tech 27
Michigan St. 26
Cincinnati 26
Gonzaga 26
North Carolina 24
Kansas 24


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AdjT 
Adjusted Tempo 
An estimate of the tempo (possessions per 40 minutes) a team would have against the team that wants to play at an average D-I tempo.

 The range is 60 to 80 possessions per 40 minutes





















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