Jon Snow: Best Goalies with Good Run Support December 2017

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Best Goalies with Good Run Support

All the stats are for the month of December 2017

Starters

* Andrei Vasilevskiy Tampa Bay

* Tuukka Rask Boston

* Marc-Andre Fleury Golden Knights

Backups

* Juuse Saros Nashville

* Philipp Grubauer Washington Capitals

* Malcolm Subban Golden Knights

All the stats are for the month of December 2017.

I propose using the the stats from the month of December

as a basis for projecting wins in the upcoming month of January.

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First I looked at the goalies with the best GAA.

GAA < 2.71

Then I looked at team offense.

I looked for goalies with good team offense.

So, we have good offense and good defense.

This increases the probability of winning.

All the stats are for the month of December 2017.

GAA Goalie December 2017

http://www.espn.com/nhl/statistics/player/_/stat/goaltending/sort/avgGoalsAgainst/qualified/false/split/44

Goals scored per game

http://www.espn.com/nhl/statistics/team/_/stat/scoring/sort/avgGoals/split/44

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Goal Differential has the strongest correlation to Win percentage

Goal Differential = Offense - Defense = Goals Scored - Goals Allowed

When you find a team with both good offense and good offense
you found a Diamond.

I like to look at the top offensive teams
and look for good goalies.

I also look at top goalies
and look for good offense ( run support ).

I also look at goal differential.

I look at it in these 3 ways
to help be find the Diamonds.

You want to look at season stats,
the past 30 days,
the last ten games.

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Goalies are like Pitchers in MLB baseball.

GAA is a measure of the Goalie and Team Defense.
For our purposes, GAA is the best stat.

Some people want to isolate the goalie from the team.
This may be useful for GM decisions for trades.

But for Fantasy and Vegas, GAA is the best stat.
The goalie and team defense is lumped together in GAA.

Pitchers need good run support to win games.

Goalies need offense = "goal support" = goal scoring

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MLB baseball and NHL hockey

Pitcher = Goalie

Pitcher = Goalie
is the centerpiece of the team defense

Runs Allowed = total team defense

Goals Allowed = total team defense

NHL hockey
Skaters play both offense and defense

MLB baseball
Batters / Fielders
play both offense and defense

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NBA basketball
There is No goalie
There is No pitcher

NBA basketball
All players play both offense and defense

When a player is out with injury,

both offense and defense are affected.

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NHL ~ MLB

Shots of goal = On Base Percentage

SOG = OBP

Goal = Run

Pitcher and Fielders

Goalie and Defensemen

MLB ~ Pitcher is most important Xfactor

NHL ~ Goalie is more important Xfactor

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NBA basketball has no goalie, no pitcher.

NBA analysis simpler because all players are analyzed with the same set of stats.

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NHL

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OFFENSE DECEMBER 2017