_____________________
All
right Jon Snow here are the web links that i use to analyze NBA first
quarters
NBA
has a good number of games for statistical analysis.
NBA
82 games. NHL 82 games. MLB 162 games
NFL
16 games. College Football 12 games.
There
are 32 NFL teams. There are 130 college football teams.
NBA,
NHL, and MLB offers the most opportunities for statistical analysis
of teams and riding streaks.
So
far the NBA teams have played about 23 games.
We
have a good amount statistics, and we can feel for the quality of the
teams and players.
We
have found NBA games volatile and hard to predict.
I
believe that by focusing on the first quarter,
we
reduce the volatility and noise
and
make better predictions.
This
is why I say this . . .
Both
teams start of with zero points. Neither team is ahead or behind.
This is important, because teams play differently when they have a
lead, and when they are behind.
At
the beginning of the game, players are hyped up with the pregame
festivities, and give a good effort. NBA basketball is like a
marathon with ebbs and flows in energy during the 48 minutes in a
whole game. In the first quarter, we can expect a good consistent
effort from the NBA basketball players.
Players
are not robots. Players are human. Motivation and effort are
variable. Many factors can influence motivation and effort.
Home,
road, back to back games, standings, rivalries, coaching, management,
ownership, crowd effect, etc.
Each
quarter is 12 minutes. NBA has frequent change of possession. I
believe and I see that one quarter has enough events to be a
statistically sound period of time. In contrast, NFL football needs
two quarters to give you enough statistical events, thus I recommend
first half for NFL. For NBA, first quarter is the optimal time
frame.
During
the half time break, teams make adjustments. These adjustments can
influence the outcome of the game. In addition, as the game
progresses, there is more chance of injuries during the games.
Starters
play a majority of minutes in the first quarter. Later bench players
are rotated in. This later variability in the lineup increases
variability in team performance. Think about relief pitchers in MLB
baseball. The bullpen brings variability in team pitching. This is
part of the reason that first five innings is more predictable.
Starters
playing a majority of the first quarter, good effort, 0-0 starting
point. These are the major reasons that I believe the first quarter
NBA predictions are more reliable.
I
am developing a system for NBA.
Check
the standings. Win percentage, home record, road record, wins the
last ten games. Offense points per games. Defense points allowed.
Point differential. Point differential is PPG scored minus points
allowed. Point differential is strongly correlated with wins. Point
differential and win percentage are the best measurements of a team’s
overall quality.
Point
differential are used by Vegas to make point spreads. Take the point
differential of the favorite team and subtract the point differential
of the underdog team. You will see that the vegas point spread is
close. Vegas usually give the home team 3 points.
Look
at schedule and results. Look for back-to-back games, travel, and
other fatigue factors. Look at wins and losses, and margin of
victory.
Consider
strength of schedule. When evaluating the quality of a win or lose,
consider the quality of the opponent and margin of victory. To
evaluate the opponent’s strength, I use win percentage and point
differential. I also do benchmarking to anchor a team. Let’s say
Team A recently beat the Golden State Warriors. That would anchor
Team A to a benchmark, and indicate that Team A may be a good team.
Benchmarking is an MBA concept.
Note
that season stats are averages for the whole season. You want to
look at recent performance to give you a more real time measure of a
team’s quality. Start with the last game and go backwards ten
games. The NBA regular season is long and has 82 games for every
team. Team performance will vary, and there can be both negative and
positive streaks. If there is a streak, we want to identify the
streak and jump on it early and ride the streak. The goal is to have
a real time power rating for the team going into the next game.
Look
at injuries. You want to evaluate the impact of the injured player.
Consider points score per game, assists, rebounds, blocks, steals,
and position of the player. Consider the drop-off with the
replacement players.
There
are few NBA stars and a injured to a star play can have huge impact.
Look at Porzingis with the Knicks. Knicks have hard time winning
without Porzingis.
You
can look at the team’s performance with and without the injured
player. This is called with-you-or-without-you analysis.
The
loss of a point guard and mess with the coordination and rhythm of
team. Consider the effects of the player’s position.
In
general, I look at points per game and rebounds of a player to
evaluate the impact. Points per game and rebounds give you a quick
feel for the player.
Keep
an eye on the Blake Griffin injury. This is another high impact
injury.
Also,
consider past matchups. Some teams just own other teams.
Another
advantage of the first quarter is that the favorite’s point spread
will be reduced and easier to cover. For example, let’s say that
Golden State’s point spread is -10 for the whole games. The first
quarter point spread may be -2.
Reduced
point spread was a major motivation for me to look at the first
quarter. You can get great matchups with top teams with high win
percentage and point differential versus bottom teams - with a
reduced point spread.
I
believe that second, third, and fourth quarter are Not predictable.
First Half and Second Half are inferior for sports forecasting
purposes.
As
our knowledge and master of sport advance, at some point, we will
have to be more selective, and focus on the best pick with the
highest probability of success.
_____________________
For
me, the 2013 NHL season, I had a 90% win percentage. Looking back,
it was blind luck, most of my picks were the Chicago Blackhawks who
won 75 percent of their games. I actually God was guiding me. Once
I have learned more, I would like to get back to that high success
rate.
_____________________
NHL
Straddle
Speaking
of Hockey - Let me introduce to technique I call straddling. It’s
inspired by hedge funds and arbitrage at investment banks. I call it
the straddle.
The
Straddle
Look
for an underdog that has a reasonable chance to win with a moneyline
of +150 or better.
Look
to see that the favorite has a PuckLine that pays our +150 or better.
You
bet equal amounts on the favorite and underdog. As long as the
favorite does not win by just one goal, then your straddle gives you
a profit.
Here
is an example, December 3, 2017 :
Ottawa
Senators were playing at Winnipeg Jets.
Ottawa
was the underdog with a moneyline of +150.
Winnpeg
PuckLine paid out +165.
There
are three scenarios here :
Ottawa
wins, and you will +150
Winnipeg
wins by 2+ goals, and you win +165
Winnipeg
wins by one goal, and you lose.
Winnipeg
winning by on goal - is the gap where you lose the straddle.
You
win whether Ottawa or Winnipeg wins.
As
long as Winnipeg does Not win by exactly one goal
_____________________
NBA
* NBA * NBA
NBA
1st Quarter
NBA
First Quarter
First
Quarter Scoring
First
Quarter Margin
Injuries
Rotoworld
ESPN
scoreboard
Fox
scoreboard
Standings
ESPN
Stats
ESPN
Team
Stats ESPN
Player
Stats ESPN
Golden
State Warriors Schedule and Results
Golden
State Warriors Player Stats
Vegas
Insider
_____________________
Today is December 3, 2017
